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21 April 2004

Opinion Polls Show Voters Split on Bush, Kerry

Campaigns target young voters

By Darlisa Crawford
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington -- As the race for the White House intensified, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll showed President Bush leading Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee, by 51 percent to 46 percent in a survey conducted April 16 through April 18. Bush also maintained a 52 percent job-approval rating.

Political analysts attribute the recent survey results to a polarized electorate. Independent pollster John Zogby said "the nation is split down the middle." A Zogby poll conducted on the weekend of April 16 showed Kerry leading Bush 47 percent to 44 percent.

YOUNG VOTERS

The potential impact of college students' votes is debatable. Nonetheless, an April Pew Research Center survey concluded that 40 percent of 18 to 29 year olds support keeping troops in Iraq until a stable government is formed.

According to a Harvard University Institute of Politics (IOP) April poll, Kerry's support among college students has increased to 48 percent in comparison to Bush's 38 percent. IOP Director and former Clinton administration Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman said, "College students now share the general public's more mixed view of the president, and Senator Kerry is benefiting from that shift. Still, these are highly independent voters who are open to persuasion, and it would be in the interests of both parties to court them aggressively."

During the week of March 6-13, the Republican National Committee sponsored a tour around the country with "Reggie The Rig," an 18-wheel truck full of computers, plasma TVs and multimedia equipment designed to communicate the Republican message to young voters. As part of a plan to register 3 million new voters with the help of local volunteers, elected officials and party leaders in various communities, the campaign bus visited various college campuses in the nation.

On April 12, Kerry launched a weeklong collegiate tour, titled "Change Starts with U." His campaign, joined by rock stars like Jon Bon Jovi and other politicians, included the University of New Hampshire, University of Miami, University of Rhode Island in Providence, City College of New York in Manhattan, Howard University in Washington, D.C., and University of Pittsburgh. In stump speeches, Kerry called for a "Compact with the Next Generation" and proposed more federal assistance to pay for college. In an attempt to reach out to young voters, Kerry recently held a conference call with college newspaper editors and established voter registration booths on more than 40 campuses.

The Republican and Democratic national committees, in collaboration with MTV, sponsored a young voters' essay contest. Winners will be selected by voters on the party conventions' web sites and on MTV's web site. The Republican winner will address the Republican convention August 30 in New York, and the Democratic winner will address the Democratic convention on July 26 in Boston.

EARTH DAY

On April 19 Kerry's campaign released a new television commercial criticizing Bush's record on the environment. On April 29 in Tampa, Florida, Kerry talked about rising levels of mercury in water and on April 21 in New Orleans about coastal erosion. The New York Times reported that Kerry would discuss air pollution on Earth Day, April 22, in Houston, Texas.

The president has scheduled an Earth Day event on the coast of Maine. Bush is scheduled to address the Wells National Estuarine Research Reserve and emphasize his support for public-private partnership programs, according to the New York Times.

POLITICAL ADVERTISEMENTS

On April 19, Kerry's presidential campaign launched three television advertisements on cable channels in California, New Jersey, New York, Washington and Wisconsin. The new political advertisements outline Kerry's position on the environment, job creation and abortion.

According to USA Today, President Bush, Kerry and liberal interest groups will have spent at least $90 million to air television ads from early March to April 25. In seven weeks, Bush's campaign will have spent at least $50 million; Kerry will have spent about $12 million; and Democratic-leaning organizations (the Media Fund, MoveOn. affiliates, and the AFL-CIO) will have spent at least $28 million. This amount exceeds the $77 million that Bush, former Vice President Al Gore, the Republican Party, the Democratic Party and interest groups supporting both candidates spent over four months — from June through September — in 2000, according to analysis from New York University Law School's Brennan Center for Justice.

Bush's re-election television advertisements have aired approximately 35,000 times, mostly in 18 closely contested states but also nationally on some cable networks. Kerry's television advertisements have run approximately 12,000 times in 17 states, according to TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, a Virginia-based nonpartisan organization.

Summing up developments to date, Vanderbilt University professor John Geer said, "A presidential election year is very much like a 15-round fight, and we're in the first few rounds."

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)